Effects of Reduced Workplace Presence on COVID-19 Deaths: An Instrumental-Variables Approach. /

McLaren, John.

Effects of Reduced Workplace Presence on COVID-19 Deaths: An Instrumental-Variables Approach. / John McLaren, Su Wang. - Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2020. - 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white); - NBER working paper series no. w28275 . - Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w28275. .

December 2020.

Numerous government policies have attempted to keep workers out of the workplace, on the assumption that this will lower transmission of COVID-19. We test that assumption, measuring the effect of aggregate workplace absence on US COVID deaths at the county level through August. Instrumenting with an index of how many local workers pre-pandemic can work from home, based on differences in county occupational mix, we find no effect of workplace absence until mid-May, then a sharply rising effect. By August, moving 10 percent of a county's workers from the workplace would lower deaths there by three quarters one month later.




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