Decoding India's Low Covid-19 Case Fatality rate /
Philip, Minu.
Decoding India's Low Covid-19 Case Fatality rate / Minu Philip, Debraj Ray, S. Subramanian. - Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2020. - 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white); - NBER working paper series no. w27696 . - Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w27696. .
August 2020.
India's case fatality rate (CFR) under covid-19 is strikingly low, trending from 3% or more, to a current level of around 2.2%. The world average rate is far higher, at around 4%. Several observers have noted that this difference is at least partly due to India's younger age distribution. In this paper, we use age-specific fatality rates from 14 comparison countries, coupled with India's distribution of covid-19 cases to "predict" what India's CFR would be with those age-specific rates. In most cases, those predictions are lower than India's actual performance, suggesting that India's CFR is, if anything, too high rather than too low. We supplement the prediction exercises with the application of a decomposition technique, and we additionally account for time lags between case incidence and death, for a more relevant cross-country perspective in the growth phase of the pandemic.
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Mode of access: World Wide Web.
Decoding India's Low Covid-19 Case Fatality rate / Minu Philip, Debraj Ray, S. Subramanian. - Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2020. - 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white); - NBER working paper series no. w27696 . - Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w27696. .
August 2020.
India's case fatality rate (CFR) under covid-19 is strikingly low, trending from 3% or more, to a current level of around 2.2%. The world average rate is far higher, at around 4%. Several observers have noted that this difference is at least partly due to India's younger age distribution. In this paper, we use age-specific fatality rates from 14 comparison countries, coupled with India's distribution of covid-19 cases to "predict" what India's CFR would be with those age-specific rates. In most cases, those predictions are lower than India's actual performance, suggesting that India's CFR is, if anything, too high rather than too low. We supplement the prediction exercises with the application of a decomposition technique, and we additionally account for time lags between case incidence and death, for a more relevant cross-country perspective in the growth phase of the pandemic.
System requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
Mode of access: World Wide Web.