The Effect of the U.S.-China Trade War on U.S. Investment /
Amiti, Mary.
The Effect of the U.S.-China Trade War on U.S. Investment / Mary Amiti, Sang Hoon Kong, David Weinstein. - Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2020. - 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white); - NBER working paper series no. w27114 . - Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w27114. .
May 2020.
We develop a new method of quantifying the impact of policy announcements on investment rates that makes use of stock market data. By estimating the effect of U.S.-China tariff announcements on aggregate returns and the differential returns of firms exposed to China, we identify their effect on treated and untreated firms. We show theoretically and empirically that estimates of policy-induced stock-market declines imply lower returns to capital, which lowers investment rates. We estimate that the tariff actions through 2018 and 2019 will lower the investment growth rate of listed U.S. companies by 1.9 percentage points by the end of 2020.
System requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
Mode of access: World Wide Web.
The Effect of the U.S.-China Trade War on U.S. Investment / Mary Amiti, Sang Hoon Kong, David Weinstein. - Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2020. - 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white); - NBER working paper series no. w27114 . - Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w27114. .
May 2020.
We develop a new method of quantifying the impact of policy announcements on investment rates that makes use of stock market data. By estimating the effect of U.S.-China tariff announcements on aggregate returns and the differential returns of firms exposed to China, we identify their effect on treated and untreated firms. We show theoretically and empirically that estimates of policy-induced stock-market declines imply lower returns to capital, which lowers investment rates. We estimate that the tariff actions through 2018 and 2019 will lower the investment growth rate of listed U.S. companies by 1.9 percentage points by the end of 2020.
System requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
Mode of access: World Wide Web.