How Risky Are Recessions for Top Earners? /

Guvenen, Fatih.

How Risky Are Recessions for Top Earners? / Fatih Guvenen, Greg Kaplan, Jae Song. - Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2014. - 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white); - NBER working paper series no. w19864 . - Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w19864. .

January 2014.

How sensitive are the earnings of top earners to business cycles? And, how does the business cycle sensitivity of top earners vary by industry? We use a confidential dataset on earnings histories of US males from the Social Security Administration. On average, individuals in the top 1% of the earnings distribution are slightly more cyclical than the population average. But there are large differences across sectors: Top earners in Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (FIRE) and Construction face substantial business cycle volatility, whereas those in Services (who make up 40% of individuals in the top 1 percent) have earnings that are less cyclical than the average worker.




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