Using the New Products Margin to Predict the Industry-Level Impact of Trade Reform /
Kehoe, Timothy J.
Using the New Products Margin to Predict the Industry-Level Impact of Trade Reform / Timothy J. Kehoe, Jack M. Rossbach, Kim J. Ruhl. - Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2013. - 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white); - NBER working paper series no. w19692 . - Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w19692. .
December 2013.
This paper develops a methodology for predicting the impact of trade liberalization on exports by industry (3-digit ISIC) based on the pre-liberalization distribution of exports by product (5-digit SITC). Using the results of Kehoe and Ruhl (2013) that much of the growth in trade after trade liberalization is in products that are traded very little or not at all, we predict that industries with a higher share of exports generated by least traded products will experience more growth. Using our methodology, we develop predictions for industry-level changes in trade for the United States and Korea following the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS). As a test for our methodology, we show that it performs significantly better than the applied general equilibrium models originally used for the policy evaluation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
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Mode of access: World Wide Web.
Using the New Products Margin to Predict the Industry-Level Impact of Trade Reform / Timothy J. Kehoe, Jack M. Rossbach, Kim J. Ruhl. - Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2013. - 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white); - NBER working paper series no. w19692 . - Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w19692. .
December 2013.
This paper develops a methodology for predicting the impact of trade liberalization on exports by industry (3-digit ISIC) based on the pre-liberalization distribution of exports by product (5-digit SITC). Using the results of Kehoe and Ruhl (2013) that much of the growth in trade after trade liberalization is in products that are traded very little or not at all, we predict that industries with a higher share of exports generated by least traded products will experience more growth. Using our methodology, we develop predictions for industry-level changes in trade for the United States and Korea following the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS). As a test for our methodology, we show that it performs significantly better than the applied general equilibrium models originally used for the policy evaluation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
System requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
Mode of access: World Wide Web.