Hysteresis in Unemployment: Old and New Evidence /
Ball, Laurence M.
Hysteresis in Unemployment: Old and New Evidence / Laurence M. Ball. - Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2009. - 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white); - NBER working paper series no. w14818 . - Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w14818. .
March 2009.
This paper argues that hysteresis helps explain the long-run behavior of unemployment. The natural rate of unemployment is influenced by the path of actual unemployment, and hence by shifts in aggregate demand. I review past evidence for hysteresis effects and present new evidence for 20 developed countries. A central finding is that large increases in the natural rate are associated with disinflations, and large decreases with run-ups in inflation. These facts are consistent with hysteresis theories and inconsistent with theories in which the natural rate is independent of aggregate demand.
System requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
Mode of access: World Wide Web.
Hysteresis in Unemployment: Old and New Evidence / Laurence M. Ball. - Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2009. - 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white); - NBER working paper series no. w14818 . - Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w14818. .
March 2009.
This paper argues that hysteresis helps explain the long-run behavior of unemployment. The natural rate of unemployment is influenced by the path of actual unemployment, and hence by shifts in aggregate demand. I review past evidence for hysteresis effects and present new evidence for 20 developed countries. A central finding is that large increases in the natural rate are associated with disinflations, and large decreases with run-ups in inflation. These facts are consistent with hysteresis theories and inconsistent with theories in which the natural rate is independent of aggregate demand.
System requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
Mode of access: World Wide Web.