Fertility and the Real Exchange Rate /
Rose, Andrew K.
Fertility and the Real Exchange Rate / Andrew K. Rose, Saktiandi Supaat. - Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2007. - 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white); - NBER working paper series no. w13263 . - Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w13263. .
July 2007.
We use a quinquennial data set covering 87 countries between 1975 and 2005 to investigate the relationship between fertility and the real effective exchange rate. Theoretically a country experiencing a decline in its fertility rate can be expected to have higher savings, lower investment, a current account surplus, and accordingly a real depreciation. We test and confirm this hypothesis, controlling for a host of potential determinants such as PPP deviations and the Balassa-Samuelson effect. We find a statistically significant and robust link between fertility and the exchange rate. Our point-estimate is that a decline in the fertility rate of one child per woman is associated with a depreciation of approximately .15% in the real effective exchange rate.
System requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
Mode of access: World Wide Web.
Fertility and the Real Exchange Rate / Andrew K. Rose, Saktiandi Supaat. - Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2007. - 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white); - NBER working paper series no. w13263 . - Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w13263. .
July 2007.
We use a quinquennial data set covering 87 countries between 1975 and 2005 to investigate the relationship between fertility and the real effective exchange rate. Theoretically a country experiencing a decline in its fertility rate can be expected to have higher savings, lower investment, a current account surplus, and accordingly a real depreciation. We test and confirm this hypothesis, controlling for a host of potential determinants such as PPP deviations and the Balassa-Samuelson effect. We find a statistically significant and robust link between fertility and the exchange rate. Our point-estimate is that a decline in the fertility rate of one child per woman is associated with a depreciation of approximately .15% in the real effective exchange rate.
System requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
Mode of access: World Wide Web.