Prescription Drugs, Medical Care, and Health Outcomes: A Model of Elderly Health Dynamics /

Yang, Zhou.

Prescription Drugs, Medical Care, and Health Outcomes: A Model of Elderly Health Dynamics / Zhou Yang, Donna B. Gilleskie, Edward C. Norton. - Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2004. - 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white); - NBER working paper series no. w10964 . - Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w10964. .

December 2004.

There is much debate about whether the Medicare Prescription Drug Bill -- the greatest expansion of Medicare benefits since its creation in 1965 -- will improve the health of elderly Americans, and how much it will cost. We model how insurance affects medical care utilization, and subsequently, health outcomes over time in a dynamic model with correlated errors. Longitudinal individual-level data from the 1992-1998 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey provide estimates of these effects. Simulations over five years show that expanding prescription drug coverage would increase drug expenditures by between 12% and 17%. However, other health care expenditures would only increase slightly, and the mortality rate would improve.




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