Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for 25 Currencies /
Chinn, Menzie.
Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for 25 Currencies / Menzie Chinn, Jeffrey Frankel. - Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 1991. - 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white); - NBER working paper series no. w3807 . - Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w3807. .
August 1991.
We investigate the properties of exchange rate forecasts with a data set encompassing a broad cross section of currencies. The key finding is that expectations appear to be biased in our sample. This result is robust to the possibility of random measurement error in the survey measures. Investors would be better off placing less weight on their forecasts or the forward rate, and more on the current spot rate.
System requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
Mode of access: World Wide Web.
Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for 25 Currencies / Menzie Chinn, Jeffrey Frankel. - Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 1991. - 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white); - NBER working paper series no. w3807 . - Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w3807. .
August 1991.
We investigate the properties of exchange rate forecasts with a data set encompassing a broad cross section of currencies. The key finding is that expectations appear to be biased in our sample. This result is robust to the possibility of random measurement error in the survey measures. Investors would be better off placing less weight on their forecasts or the forward rate, and more on the current spot rate.
System requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
Mode of access: World Wide Web.