The Index of Leading Indicators: "Measurement without Theory," Twenty-Five Years Later /
Auerbach, Alan J.
The Index of Leading Indicators: "Measurement without Theory," Twenty-Five Years Later / Alan J. Auerbach. - Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 1981. - 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white); - NBER working paper series no. w0761 . - Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w0761. .
September 1981.
The index of leading economic indicators first developed by the NBER remains a popular informal forecasting tool in spite of the original criticism that its use represents "measurement without theory. " This paper seeks to evaluate the performance of the index in comparison to alternative time series methods in predicting business cycle behavior. While the actual method of choosing the weights for the twelve series included in the index is essentially unnecessary (because the resulting series is indistinguishable from another with uniform weights) the series itself helps explain business cycle behavior, and outperforms an index with econometrically chosen weights.
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Mode of access: World Wide Web.
The Index of Leading Indicators: "Measurement without Theory," Twenty-Five Years Later / Alan J. Auerbach. - Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 1981. - 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white); - NBER working paper series no. w0761 . - Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w0761. .
September 1981.
The index of leading economic indicators first developed by the NBER remains a popular informal forecasting tool in spite of the original criticism that its use represents "measurement without theory. " This paper seeks to evaluate the performance of the index in comparison to alternative time series methods in predicting business cycle behavior. While the actual method of choosing the weights for the twelve series included in the index is essentially unnecessary (because the resulting series is indistinguishable from another with uniform weights) the series itself helps explain business cycle behavior, and outperforms an index with econometrically chosen weights.
System requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
Mode of access: World Wide Web.