The Revived Bretton Woods System's First Decade / Michael P. Dooley, David Folkerts-Landau, Peter M. Garber.

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Dooley, Michael P

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Material type: Text

TextSeries: Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ; no. w20454.Publication details: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2014.Description: 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white)Subject(s):

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Abstract: The revived Bretton Woods framework we proposed in 2003 remains a useful way to understand the international financial system. We document that the system survived the 2008 crisis. Looking forward, we argue that the system will continue to evolve as we expected. China is likely to graduate from the periphery to the center in the next few years. This graduation process could be smooth or associated with recurrent financial crises. During this transition the magnitude of net capital outflows from the periphery will continue to depress real interest rates in industrial countries at every phase of the business cycle. Finally, recent policy initiatives suggest that India is poised to replace China as the dominant periphery country.

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Working Paper	Biblioteca Digital	Colección NBER	nber w20454 (Browse shelf(Opens below))	Not For Loan

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Previous	nber w20451 Turnout Across Democracies /	nber w20452 Micro Data and Macro Technology /	nber w20453 Does Gifted Education Work? For Which Students? /	nber w20454 The Revived Bretton Woods System's First Decade /	nber w20455 Export Markets and Labor Allocation in a Low-income Country /	nber w20456 The Informativeness Principle Under Limited Liability /	nber w20457 The Price of Experience /	Next

September 2014.

The revived Bretton Woods framework we proposed in 2003 remains a useful way to understand the international financial system. We document that the system survived the 2008 crisis. Looking forward, we argue that the system will continue to evolve as we expected. China is likely to graduate from the periphery to the center in the next few years. This graduation process could be smooth or associated with recurrent financial crises. During this transition the magnitude of net capital outflows from the periphery will continue to depress real interest rates in industrial countries at every phase of the business cycle. Finally, recent policy initiatives suggest that India is poised to replace China as the dominant periphery country.