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Confidence, Crashes and Animal Spirits / Roger E.A. Farmer.

By: Contributor(s): Material type: TextTextSeries: Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ; no. w14846.Publication details: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2009.Description: 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white)Subject(s): Online resources: Available additional physical forms:
  • Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
Abstract: This paper presents a model of the macroeconomy that reformulates what I take to be two important ideas from Keynes General Theory. The first is that there may be a continuum of steady state unemployment rates. The second is that beliefs select an equilibrium. I argue that search and matching costs in the labor market lead to the existence of a continuum of equilibria and I resolve the resulting indeterminacy by assuming that the beliefs of stock market participants are self-fulfilling. The paper reconciles Keynesian economics with general equilibrium theory without invoking the assumption of frictions that prevent wages and prices from reaching their equilibrium levels.
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April 2009.

This paper presents a model of the macroeconomy that reformulates what I take to be two important ideas from Keynes General Theory. The first is that there may be a continuum of steady state unemployment rates. The second is that beliefs select an equilibrium. I argue that search and matching costs in the labor market lead to the existence of a continuum of equilibria and I resolve the resulting indeterminacy by assuming that the beliefs of stock market participants are self-fulfilling. The paper reconciles Keynesian economics with general equilibrium theory without invoking the assumption of frictions that prevent wages and prices from reaching their equilibrium levels.

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