Retirement and the Stock Market Bubble / Alan L. Gustman, Thomas L. Steinmeier.

By:

Gustman, Alan L

Contributor(s):

Material type: Text

TextSeries: Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ; no. w9404.Publication details: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2002.Description: 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white)Subject(s):

Online resources:

Available additional physical forms:

Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers

Abstract: This paper specifies and estimates a structural dynamic stochastic model of the way individuals make retirement and saving choices in an uncertain world, and applies that model to analyze the effects of the stock market bubble on retirement behavior. The model includes individual variation both in retirement preferences and in time preferences. Estimates are based on information covering the period 1992 through 2000 from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a panel survey of retirement age respondents and their spouses. The extraordinary returns in the stock market in the late 1990's, which more than doubled stock prices and unexpectedly increased the value of a mixed portfolio by nearly 60 percent, increased retirement for the HRS sample of workers by over 3 percentage points by the turn of the century and would have decreased the average retirement age by about a quarter of a year if it had not been interrupted. The subsequent decline in the market, which very nearly wiped out the gains that had been made during the preceding surge, effectively neutralized the effect of the preceding stock market gains on retirement. The effects of the bubble were to increase retirement as long as the bubble continued, but any continuing effects of the bubble after its end will probably be minimal.

Tags from this library: No tags from this library for this title. Log in to add tags.

Average rating: 0.0 (0 votes)

Holdings
Item type	Home library	Collection	Call number	Status	Date due	Barcode	Item holds
Working Paper	Biblioteca Digital	Colección NBER	nber w9404 (Browse shelf(Opens below))	Not For Loan

Total holds: 0

Collection: Colección NBER Close shelf browser (Hides shelf browser)

Previous	No cover image available	No cover image available	No cover image available	No cover image available	No cover image available	No cover image available	No cover image available	Next
Previous	nber w9401 Closed Jaguar, Open Dragon: Comparing Tariffs in Latin America and Asia before World War II /	nber w9402 Optimal Monetary Policy /	nber w9403 Managerial Incentives and the International Organization of Production /	nber w9404 Retirement and the Stock Market Bubble /	nber w9405 The Effect of the State Children's Health Insurance Program on Health Insurance Coverage /	nber w9406 Welfare Reform and Non-Marital Fertility in the 1990s: Evidence from Birth Records /	nber w9407 Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World: Micro Estimation /	Next

December 2002.

This paper specifies and estimates a structural dynamic stochastic model of the way individuals make retirement and saving choices in an uncertain world, and applies that model to analyze the effects of the stock market bubble on retirement behavior. The model includes individual variation both in retirement preferences and in time preferences. Estimates are based on information covering the period 1992 through 2000 from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a panel survey of retirement age respondents and their spouses. The extraordinary returns in the stock market in the late 1990's, which more than doubled stock prices and unexpectedly increased the value of a mixed portfolio by nearly 60 percent, increased retirement for the HRS sample of workers by over 3 percentage points by the turn of the century and would have decreased the average retirement age by about a quarter of a year if it had not been interrupted. The subsequent decline in the market, which very nearly wiped out the gains that had been made during the preceding surge, effectively neutralized the effect of the preceding stock market gains on retirement. The effects of the bubble were to increase retirement as long as the bubble continued, but any continuing effects of the bubble after its end will probably be minimal.