The EMS Crisis in Retrospect / Barry Eichengreen.

By:

Eichengreen, Barry

Contributor(s):

National Bureau of Economic Research

Material type: Text

TextSeries: Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ; no. w8035.Publication details: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2000.Description: 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white)Subject(s):

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Abstract: This paper reconsiders the 1992-3 crisis in the European Monetary System in light of its emerging market successors. That episode was a predecessor of the Mexican and Asian crises in the sense that both capital movements and domestic financial fragility placed important roles. The output effects of this currency crisis resemble those of the typical emerging market crisis as much as they do the moderate effects of the typical industrial-country event of its kind to take place in an environment of fully free capital mobility. Leading indicator models' constructed using data from the Tequila and the Asian flu are shown to do a surprisingly good job at backcasting' which European countries suffered currency instability in 1992-3, although these models also point to what was distinctive about the European case.

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Previous	nber w8032 The Effects of 401(k) Plans on Household Wealth: Differences Across Earnings Groups /	nber w8033 On the Japanese Economy and Japanese National Accounts /	nber w8034 The Social Consequences of Housing /	nber w8035 The EMS Crisis in Retrospect /	nber w8036 Issue Unbundling via Citizens' Initiatives /	nber w8037 The Optimal Treatment of Tax Expenditures /	nber w8038 Firm Level Investment and R&D in France and the United States: A Comparison /	Next

December 2000.

This paper reconsiders the 1992-3 crisis in the European Monetary System in light of its emerging market successors. That episode was a predecessor of the Mexican and Asian crises in the sense that both capital movements and domestic financial fragility placed important roles. The output effects of this currency crisis resemble those of the typical emerging market crisis as much as they do the moderate effects of the typical industrial-country event of its kind to take place in an environment of fully free capital mobility. Leading indicator models' constructed using data from the Tequila and the Asian flu are shown to do a surprisingly good job at backcasting' which European countries suffered currency instability in 1992-3, although these models also point to what was distinctive about the European case.