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The Current Account and the Real Exchange Rate: A Structural VAR Analysis of Major Currencies / Jaewoo Lee, Menzie D. Chinn.

By: Contributor(s): Material type: TextTextSeries: Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ; no. w6495.Publication details: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 1998.Description: 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white)Subject(s): Online resources: Available additional physical forms:
  • Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
Abstract: A sticky-price model is used to motivate a structural VAR analysis of the current account and the real exchange rate for seven major industrialized countries (the US, Canada, the UK, Japan, Germany, France and Italy). The analysis is distinguished from previous work in that it adopts minimal assumptions for identification. The empirical results are consistent with the theoretical model, as well as the sticky price intertemporal model of Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995). Permanent shocks to productivity have large long term effects on the real exchange rate, but relatively small effects on the current account; money shocks have large effects on the current account and exchange rate in the short run, but not on either variable in the long run.
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April 1998.

A sticky-price model is used to motivate a structural VAR analysis of the current account and the real exchange rate for seven major industrialized countries (the US, Canada, the UK, Japan, Germany, France and Italy). The analysis is distinguished from previous work in that it adopts minimal assumptions for identification. The empirical results are consistent with the theoretical model, as well as the sticky price intertemporal model of Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995). Permanent shocks to productivity have large long term effects on the real exchange rate, but relatively small effects on the current account; money shocks have large effects on the current account and exchange rate in the short run, but not on either variable in the long run.

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