Affine Models of Currency Pricing / David Backus, Silverio Foresi, Chris Telmer.

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Backus, David

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Material type: Text

TextSeries: Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ; no. w5623.Publication details: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 1996.Description: 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white)Subject(s):

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Abstract: Perhaps the most puzzling feature of currency prices is the tendency for high interest rate currencies to appreciate, when the expectations hypothesis suggests the reverse. Some have attributed this forward premium anomaly to a time-varying risk premium, but theory has been largely unsuccessful in producing a risk premium with the requisite properties. We characterize the risk premium in a general arbitrage-free setting and describe the features a theory must have to account for the anomaly. In affine models, the anomaly requires either that state variables have asymmetric effects on state prices in different currencies or that we abandon the common requirement that interest rates be strictly positive.

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Item type	Home library	Collection	Call number	Status	Date due	Barcode	Item holds
Working Paper	Biblioteca Digital	Colección NBER	nber w5623 (Browse shelf(Opens below))	Not For Loan

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Previous	nber w5620 Does European Unemployment Prop up American Wages? /	nber w5621 Trade Sensitivity, Technology, and Labor Displacement /	nber w5622 Financial Capital, Human Capital, and the Transition to Self-Employment: Evidence from Intergenerational Links /	nber w5623 Affine Models of Currency Pricing /	nber w5624 Perceptions of Equity and the Distribution of Income /	nber w5625 The Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek Model of Trade: Why Does It Fail? When Does It Work? /	nber w5626 Wages, Productivity, and Worker Characteristics: Evidence from Plant-Level Production Functions and Wage Equations /	Next

June 1996.

Perhaps the most puzzling feature of currency prices is the tendency for high interest rate currencies to appreciate, when the expectations hypothesis suggests the reverse. Some have attributed this forward premium anomaly to a time-varying risk premium, but theory has been largely unsuccessful in producing a risk premium with the requisite properties. We characterize the risk premium in a general arbitrage-free setting and describe the features a theory must have to account for the anomaly. In affine models, the anomaly requires either that state variables have asymmetric effects on state prices in different currencies or that we abandon the common requirement that interest rates be strictly positive.