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Demographic Factors and Real House Prices / Richard K. Green, Patric H. Hendershott.

By: Contributor(s): Material type: TextTextSeries: Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ; no. w4332.Publication details: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 1993.Description: 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white)Subject(s): Online resources: Available additional physical forms:
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Abstract: Real house prices are directly determined by the willingness of households to pay for (and willingness of builders to supply) a constant-quality house. Changes in the quantity of housing demanded will affect real prices only to the extent that the long-run housing supply schedule is positively sloped. In this paper we use 1980 census data to measure the impact of the age structure and real income per household on the willingness of households to pay for a constant quality house. Extrapolating these variables forward to 2010, we conclude that evolving demographic forces are likely to raise real house prices. not lower them.
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April 1993.

Real house prices are directly determined by the willingness of households to pay for (and willingness of builders to supply) a constant-quality house. Changes in the quantity of housing demanded will affect real prices only to the extent that the long-run housing supply schedule is positively sloped. In this paper we use 1980 census data to measure the impact of the age structure and real income per household on the willingness of households to pay for a constant quality house. Extrapolating these variables forward to 2010, we conclude that evolving demographic forces are likely to raise real house prices. not lower them.

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