A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators / James H. Stock, Mark W. Watson.

By:

Stock, James H

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Material type: Text

TextSeries: Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ; no. w2772.Publication details: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 1988.Description: 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white)Subject(s):

E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

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Abstract: The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators, currently compiled by the U.S. Department of Commerce, is designed to measure the state of overall economic activity. The index is constructed as a weighted average of four key macroeconomic time series, where the weights are obtained using rules that dare to the early days of business cycle analysis. This paper presents an explicit rime series model (formally, a dynamic factor analysis or "single index" model) that implicitly defines a variable that can be thought of as the overall state of the economy. Upon estimating this model using data from 1959-1987, the estimate of this unobserved variable is found to be highly correlated with the official Commerce Department series, particularly over business cycle horizons. Thus this model provides a formal rationalization for the traditional methodology used to develop the Coincident Index. Initial exploratory exercises indicate that traditional leading variables can prove useful in forecasting the short-run growth in this series.

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Holdings
Item type	Home library	Collection	Call number	Status	Date due	Barcode	Item holds
Working Paper	Biblioteca Digital	Colección NBER	nber w2772 (Browse shelf(Opens below))	Not For Loan

Total holds: 0

November 1988.

The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators, currently compiled by the U.S. Department of Commerce, is designed to measure the state of overall economic activity. The index is constructed as a weighted average of four key macroeconomic time series, where the weights are obtained using rules that dare to the early days of business cycle analysis. This paper presents an explicit rime series model (formally, a dynamic factor analysis or "single index" model) that implicitly defines a variable that can be thought of as the overall state of the economy. Upon estimating this model using data from 1959-1987, the estimate of this unobserved variable is found to be highly correlated with the official Commerce Department series, particularly over business cycle horizons. Thus this model provides a formal rationalization for the traditional methodology used to develop the Coincident Index. Initial exploratory exercises indicate that traditional leading variables can prove useful in forecasting the short-run growth in this series.