Delay in Reporting Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) / Jeffrey E. Harris.

By:

Harris, Jeffrey E

Contributor(s):

National Bureau of Economic Research

Material type: Text

TextSeries: Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ; no. w2278.Publication details: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 1987.Description: 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white)Subject(s):

H - Public Economics

Online resources:

Available additional physical forms:

Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers

Abstract: As of March 31, 1987, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control had reported 33,350 cases of acquired immune deficiency syndrome. Yet by that date, physicians had actually diagnosed 42,670 cases. The difference arises from significant delays in the reporting of AIDS cases to public health authorities. An estimated 70% of cases are reported two or more months after diagnosis; about 23% are reported seven or more months later; and about 5% take more than three years to come in. Moreover, the probability distribution of delays has been shifting to the right, with the median delay increasing by 0.6 months since mid-1986. From the data on reported cases and the estimated probability distribution of reporting delays, I reconstruct the actual incidence of AIDS from January 1982 through March 1987. The doubling time of the epidemic fell from about 6 months in 1982 to 15-16 months in 1986.

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June 1987.

As of March 31, 1987, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control had reported 33,350 cases of acquired immune deficiency syndrome. Yet by that date, physicians had actually diagnosed 42,670 cases. The difference arises from significant delays in the reporting of AIDS cases to public health authorities. An estimated 70% of cases are reported two or more months after diagnosis; about 23% are reported seven or more months later; and about 5% take more than three years to come in. Moreover, the probability distribution of delays has been shifting to the right, with the median delay increasing by 0.6 months since mid-1986. From the data on reported cases and the estimated probability distribution of reporting delays, I reconstruct the actual incidence of AIDS from January 1982 through March 1987. The doubling time of the epidemic fell from about 6 months in 1982 to 15-16 months in 1986.