The Prewar Business Cycle Reconsidered: New Estimates of Gross NationalProduct, 1869-1918 / Christina D. Romer.

By:

Romer, Christina D

Contributor(s):

National Bureau of Economic Research

Material type: Text

TextSeries: Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ; no. w1969.Publication details: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 1986.Description: 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white)Online resources:

Available additional physical forms:

Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers

Abstract: This paper shows that the existing estimates of prewar gross nationalAbstract: product exaggerate the size of cyclical fluctuations. The source of theAbstract: exaggeration is that the original Kuznets estimates are based on theAbstract: assumption that GNP moves one-for-one with commodity output valued atAbstract: producer prices. New estimates of GNP for 1869-1918 are derived using theAbstract: estimated aggregate relationship between GNP and commodity output for theAbstract: interwar and postwar eras. The new estimates of GNP indicate that theAbstract: business cycle is only slightly more severe in the pre-Worid War I era than in the post-World War II era.

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July 1986.

This paper shows that the existing estimates of prewar gross national

product exaggerate the size of cyclical fluctuations. The source of the

exaggeration is that the original Kuznets estimates are based on the

assumption that GNP moves one-for-one with commodity output valued at

producer prices. New estimates of GNP for 1869-1918 are derived using the

estimated aggregate relationship between GNP and commodity output for the

interwar and postwar eras. The new estimates of GNP indicate that the

business cycle is only slightly more severe in the pre-Worid War I era than in the post-World War II era.