Monetary Policy Regimes, Expected Inflation, and the Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements / V. Vance Roley, Carl E. Walsh.

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Roley, V. Vance

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Material type: Text

TextSeries: Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ; no. w1181.Publication details: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 1983.Description: 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white)Subject(s):

E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

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Abstract: This paper examines the response of the term structure of interest rates to weekly money announcements. Estimated responses for both the pre- and post-October 1979 periods are first presented. Then, two competing hypotheses involving the policy anticipations and expected inflation effects are formally specified and compared to the estimated responses.Both hypotheses are found to be consistent with the responses, but they have sharply different implications about the Federal Reserve's short-run monetary policy. The expected inflation hypothesis implies that weekly money surprises should have persistent effects on the level of the money stock, reflecting shifts in the Federal Reserve's long-run target. In contrast, the policy anticipations hypothesis implies that the effectof money surprises should diminish over time, reflecting the Federal Reserve's desire to offset deviations from target. Additional empirical results reported in the paper support this latter description of the money stock process.

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Item type	Home library	Collection	Call number	Status	Date due	Barcode	Item holds
Working Paper	Biblioteca Digital	Colección NBER	nber w1181 (Browse shelf(Opens below))	Not For Loan

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August 1983.

This paper examines the response of the term structure of interest rates to weekly money announcements. Estimated responses for both the pre- and post-October 1979 periods are first presented. Then, two competing hypotheses involving the policy anticipations and expected inflation effects are formally specified and compared to the estimated responses.Both hypotheses are found to be consistent with the responses, but they have sharply different implications about the Federal Reserve's short-run monetary policy. The expected inflation hypothesis implies that weekly money surprises should have persistent effects on the level of the money stock, reflecting shifts in the Federal Reserve's long-run target. In contrast, the policy anticipations hypothesis implies that the effectof money surprises should diminish over time, reflecting the Federal Reserve's desire to offset deviations from target. Additional empirical results reported in the paper support this latter description of the money stock process.