Adjustment to Expected and Unexpected Oil Price Changes / Nancy Peregrim Marion, Lars E.O. Svensson.

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Marion, Nancy Peregrim

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Material type: Text

TextSeries: Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ; no. w0997.Publication details: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 1982.Description: 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white)Online resources:

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Abstract: For oil importers, differences in economic performance after the 1973-74 oil price increase and after the 1979-80 increase can be attributed to a number of factors, including the fact that the 1973-74 oil price increase was unexpected whereas the 1979-80 increase was largely expected. In this paper, we analyze how an economy's adjustment to expected oil price increases might differ from its adjustment to unexpected increases. By expected oil price increases, we shall mean ones that were anticipated in the past, and by unexpected oil price increases, we shall mean those that were not anticipated in the past but occur unexpectedly in the present. We model this distinction using a three- period model, where the periods are called the past, present and future.

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Item type	Home library	Collection	Call number	Status	Date due	Barcode	Item holds
Working Paper	Biblioteca Digital	Colección NBER	nber w0997 (Browse shelf(Opens below))	Not For Loan

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October 1982.

For oil importers, differences in economic performance after the 1973-74 oil price increase and after the 1979-80 increase can be attributed to a number of factors, including the fact that the 1973-74 oil price increase was unexpected whereas the 1979-80 increase was largely expected. In this paper, we analyze how an economy's adjustment to expected oil price increases might differ from its adjustment to unexpected increases. By expected oil price increases, we shall mean ones that were anticipated in the past, and by unexpected oil price increases, we shall mean those that were not anticipated in the past but occur unexpectedly in the present. We model this distinction using a three- period model, where the periods are called the past, present and future.