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Effects of U.S. Monetary Restraint on the DM-$ Exchange Rate and the German Economy / Jacques R. Artus.

By: Contributor(s): Material type: TextTextSeries: Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ; no. w0926.Publication details: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 1982.Description: 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white)Online resources: Available additional physical forms:
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Abstract: This paper assesses the quantitative effects of a shift to monetary restraint in the United States on the DM-$ exchange rate and the German economy. The results indicate that such effects are large. If Germany keeps its money growth unchanged, it will tend to experience a sharp and sustained depreciation of the deutsche mark and a significant increase in inflation and in unemployment. If it adopts an equivalent policy of monetary restraint, it will tend to benefit from a marked decline in inflation, but the cost in terms of lost output is extremely large.
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July 1982.

This paper assesses the quantitative effects of a shift to monetary restraint in the United States on the DM-$ exchange rate and the German economy. The results indicate that such effects are large. If Germany keeps its money growth unchanged, it will tend to experience a sharp and sustained depreciation of the deutsche mark and a significant increase in inflation and in unemployment. If it adopts an equivalent policy of monetary restraint, it will tend to benefit from a marked decline in inflation, but the cost in terms of lost output is extremely large.

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