On the Accuracy and Properties of Recent Macroeconomic Forecasts / Victor Zarnowitz.

By:

Zarnowitz, Victor

Contributor(s):

National Bureau of Economic Research

Material type: Text

TextSeries: Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ; no. w0229.Publication details: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 1978.Description: 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white)Online resources:

Available additional physical forms:

Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers

Abstract: The aim of this study is to contribute to the measurement and analysis of errors in economists' predictions of changes in aggregate income, output, and the price level. Small sample studies of forecasts can be instructive, but their limitations must be recognized. Compilation of consistent forecast records extending over longer periods of tine is necessary to establish a reasonably reliable base for assessments of forecasting behavior and. performance. Thus the historical record of post-World War II forecasts assembled in the 1960's by the NBER is here extended and updated.

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Item type	Home library	Collection	Call number	Status	Date due	Barcode	Item holds
Working Paper	Biblioteca Digital	Colección NBER	nber w0229 (Browse shelf(Opens below))	Not For Loan

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1978.

The aim of this study is to contribute to the measurement and analysis of errors in economists' predictions of changes in aggregate income, output, and the price level. Small sample studies of forecasts can be instructive, but their limitations must be recognized. Compilation of consistent forecast records extending over longer periods of tine is necessary to establish a reasonably reliable base for assessments of forecasting behavior and. performance. Thus the historical record of post-World War II forecasts assembled in the 1960's by the NBER is here extended and updated.