The Cumulative Unanticipated Change in Interest Rates: Evidence on the Misintermediation Hypothesis / J. Huston McCulloch.

By:

McCulloch, J. Huston

Contributor(s):

National Bureau of Economic Research

Material type: Text

TextSeries: Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ; no. w0222.Publication details: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 1977.Description: 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white)Online resources:

Available additional physical forms:

Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers

Abstract: The term structure of interest rates is carefully analyzed over the period 1947-77 in order to construct a monthly series on cumulative unanticipated changes in long-term interest rates. This series is a sort of synthetic interest rate, changes in which over several months or years represent entirely unanticipated changes in interest rates. The behavior of this series is examined over recognized business fluctuations, and it is found to be actually more reliably pro-cyclic than the raw long-term interest rate, in spite of Kessel's finding that the market tends to correctly predict the direction of change of interest rates over phases. That the series is pro-cyclic supports the hypothesis we have put forward in another paper, that business fluctuations may be caused by "misintermediation", by which we mean the traditional mis-matching of asset and liability maturities on the part of financial intermediaries.

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Item type	Home library	Collection	Call number	Status	Date due	Barcode	Item holds
Working Paper	Biblioteca Digital	Colección NBER	nber w0222 (Browse shelf(Opens below))	Not For Loan

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December 1977.

The term structure of interest rates is carefully analyzed over the period 1947-77 in order to construct a monthly series on cumulative unanticipated changes in long-term interest rates. This series is a sort of synthetic interest rate, changes in which over several months or years represent entirely unanticipated changes in interest rates. The behavior of this series is examined over recognized business fluctuations, and it is found to be actually more reliably pro-cyclic than the raw long-term interest rate, in spite of Kessel's finding that the market tends to correctly predict the direction of change of interest rates over phases. That the series is pro-cyclic supports the hypothesis we have put forward in another paper, that business fluctuations may be caused by "misintermediation", by which we mean the traditional mis-matching of asset and liability maturities on the part of financial intermediaries.