Accelerating Vaccine Innovation for Emerging Infectious Diseases via Parallel Discovery / Joseph Barberio, Jacob Becraft, Zied Ben Chaouch, Dimitris Bertsimas, Tasuku Kitada, Michael Lingzhi Li, Andrew W. Lo, Kevin Shi, Qingyang Xu.

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Barberio, Joseph

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TextSeries: Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ; no. w30126.Publication details: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2022.Description: 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white)Subject(s):

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Abstract: We analyze the financial performance of a hypothetical portfolio of 120 mRNA vaccine candidates in the preclinical stage targeting 11 emerging infectious diseases. We calibrate the simulation parameters with input from domain experts in mRNA technology and an extensive literature review. We find that the portfolio generates an average annualized return on investment of -6.0% per annum and a net present value of -$9.5 billion, despite the scientific advantages of mRNA technology and the financial benefits of diversification. Clinical trial costs account for 94% of the total investment, with manufacturing costs accounting for only 6%. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the most important factor determining financial performance is the price per dose, while the increased probability of success due to mRNA technology, adjusting the size of the portfolio, and the possibility of conducting human challenge trials do not significantly improve financial performance. These results underscore that if the goal is to create a sustainable business model and robust global vaccine ecosystem, continued collaboration between government agencies and the private sector is likely to be necessary.

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June 2022.

We analyze the financial performance of a hypothetical portfolio of 120 mRNA vaccine candidates in the preclinical stage targeting 11 emerging infectious diseases. We calibrate the simulation parameters with input from domain experts in mRNA technology and an extensive literature review. We find that the portfolio generates an average annualized return on investment of -6.0% per annum and a net present value of -$9.5 billion, despite the scientific advantages of mRNA technology and the financial benefits of diversification. Clinical trial costs account for 94% of the total investment, with manufacturing costs accounting for only 6%. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the most important factor determining financial performance is the price per dose, while the increased probability of success due to mRNA technology, adjusting the size of the portfolio, and the possibility of conducting human challenge trials do not significantly improve financial performance. These results underscore that if the goal is to create a sustainable business model and robust global vaccine ecosystem, continued collaboration between government agencies and the private sector is likely to be necessary.