Micro MPCs and Macro Counterfactuals: The Case of the 2008 Rebates / Jacob Orchard, Valerie A. Ramey, Johannes F. Wieland.

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Orchard, Jacob

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TextSeries: Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ; no. w31584.Publication details: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2023.Description: 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white)Subject(s):

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Abstract: We present evidence that the high estimated MPCs from the leading household studies result in implausible macroeconomic counterfactuals. Using the 2008 tax rebate as a case study, we calibrate a standard medium-scale New Keynesian model with the estimated micro MPCs to construct counterfactual macroeconomic consumption paths in the absence of a rebate. The counterfactual paths imply that consumption expenditures would have plummeted in spring and summer 2008 and then recovered when Lehman Brothers failed in September 2008. We use narratives and forecasts to argue that these paths are implausible. We then show that standard two-way fixed effect estimates of the micro MPCs are upward biased. When we correct for the biases, we estimate smaller micro MPCs than the previous literature. We also show that reasonable modifications of the model result in general equilibrium forces that dampen rather than amplify micro MPCs. The combination of smaller micro MPCs and dampening general equilibrium forces implies general equilibrium consumption multipliers that are below 0.2.

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Previous	nber w31581 The Impact of Criminal Financial Sanctions: A Multi-State Analysis of Survey and Administrative Data /	nber w31582 Organizational Responses to Product Cycles /	nber w31583 Machine Forecast Disagreement /	nber w31584 Micro MPCs and Macro Counterfactuals: The Case of the 2008 Rebates /	nber w31585 Population Aging and Economic Growth: From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Drag? /	nber w31586 Plata y Plomo: How Higher Wages Expose Politicians to Criminal Violence /	nber w31587 Location, Location, Location /	Next

August 2023.

We present evidence that the high estimated MPCs from the leading household studies result in implausible macroeconomic counterfactuals. Using the 2008 tax rebate as a case study, we calibrate a standard medium-scale New Keynesian model with the estimated micro MPCs to construct counterfactual macroeconomic consumption paths in the absence of a rebate. The counterfactual paths imply that consumption expenditures would have plummeted in spring and summer 2008 and then recovered when Lehman Brothers failed in September 2008. We use narratives and forecasts to argue that these paths are implausible. We then show that standard two-way fixed effect estimates of the micro MPCs are upward biased. When we correct for the biases, we estimate smaller micro MPCs than the previous literature. We also show that reasonable modifications of the model result in general equilibrium forces that dampen rather than amplify micro MPCs. The combination of smaller micro MPCs and dampening general equilibrium forces implies general equilibrium consumption multipliers that are below 0.2.