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China's Macroeconomic Development: The Role of Gradualist Reforms / Kaiji Chen, Tao Zha.

By: Contributor(s): Material type: TextTextSeries: Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ; no. w31395.Publication details: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2023.Description: 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white)Subject(s): Other classification:
  • E02
  • E2
  • E65
  • F43
Online resources: Available additional physical forms:
  • Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
Abstract: This paper reviews recent literature on China's macroeconomic development, emphasizing the critical role of the gradualist approach over the past four decades. Beyond China's structural transformation, we explore various aspects such as high saving rates, the housing boom, an expanding current account surplus, and rising inequality. We propose a unifying framework that encapsulates key development stages, contrasting gradualism with a laissez-faire counterfactual. Our analysis illustrates how China's gradual policy reforms, amidst highly imperfect financial markets, have effectively helped spur GDP growth throughout its macroeconomic evolution. We highlight the tradeoffs between accelerating GDP growth and safeguarding China's long-term financial stability.
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June 2023.

This paper reviews recent literature on China's macroeconomic development, emphasizing the critical role of the gradualist approach over the past four decades. Beyond China's structural transformation, we explore various aspects such as high saving rates, the housing boom, an expanding current account surplus, and rising inequality. We propose a unifying framework that encapsulates key development stages, contrasting gradualism with a laissez-faire counterfactual. Our analysis illustrates how China's gradual policy reforms, amidst highly imperfect financial markets, have effectively helped spur GDP growth throughout its macroeconomic evolution. We highlight the tradeoffs between accelerating GDP growth and safeguarding China's long-term financial stability.

Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers

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