TY  - BOOK
AU  - Forbes,Kristin
AU  - Hjortsoe,Ida
AU  - Nenova,Tsvetelina
ED  - National Bureau of Economic Research.
TI  - The Shocks Matter: Improving Our Estimates of Exchange Rate Pass-Through 
T2  - NBER working paper series
PY  - 2018///
CY  - Cambridge, Mass.
PB  - National Bureau of Economic Research
N1  - June 2018; Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
N2  - A major challenge for monetary policy is predicting how exchange rate movements will impact inflation.  We propose a new focus: directly incorporating the underlying shocks that cause exchange rate fluctuations when evaluating how these fluctuations "pass through" to import and consumer prices. A standard open-economy model shows that the relationship between exchange rates and prices depends on the shocks which cause the exchange rate to move. We build on this to develop a structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) framework for a small open economy and apply it to the UK. We show that prices respond differently to exchange rate movements based on what caused the movements. For example, exchange rate pass-through is low in response to domestic demand shocks and relatively high in response to domestic monetary policy shocks. This framework can improve our ability to estimate how pass-through can change over short periods of time. For example, it can explain why sterling's post-crisis depreciation caused a sharper increase in prices than expected, while the effect of sterling's 2013-15 appreciation was more muted. We also apply this framework to forecast the extent of pass-through from sterling's sharp depreciation corresponding to the UK's vote to leave the European Union
UR  - https://www.nber.org/papers/w24773
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w24773
ER  -