TY  - BOOK
AU  - Buckles,Kasey
AU  - Hungerman,Daniel
AU  - Lugauer,Steven
ED  - National Bureau of Economic Research.
TI  - Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator?
T2  - NBER working paper series
PY  - 2018///
CY  - Cambridge, Mass.
PB  - National Bureau of Economic Research
N1  - February 2018; Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
N2  - Many papers show that aggregate fertility is pro-cyclical over the business cycle. In this paper we do something else: using data on more than 100 million births and focusing on within-year changes in fertility, we show that for recent recessions in the United States, the growth rate for conceptions begins to fall several quarters prior to economic decline. Our findings suggest that fertility behavior is more forward-looking and sensitive to changes in short-run expectations about the economy than previously thought
UR  - https://www.nber.org/papers/w24355
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w24355
ER  -