TY  - BOOK
AU  - Herrera,Helios
AU  - Ordoñez,Guillermo
AU  - Trebesch,Christoph
ED  - National Bureau of Economic Research.
TI  - Political Booms, Financial Crises
T2  - NBER working paper series
PY  - 2014///
CY  - Cambridge, Mass.
PB  - National Bureau of Economic Research
N1  - July 2014; Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
N2  - We show that political booms, measured by the rise in governments' popularity, predict financial crises above and beyond other better-known early warning indicators, such as credit booms. This predictive power, however, only holds in emerging economies. We show that governments in emerging economies are more concerned about their reputation and tend to ride the short-term popularity benefits of weak credit booms rather than implementing politically costly corrective policies that would help prevent potential crises. We provide evidence of the relevance of this reputation mechanism
UR  - https://www.nber.org/papers/w20346
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w20346
ER  -