TY  - BOOK
AU  - Ortoleva,Pietro
AU  - Snowberg,Erik
ED  - National Bureau of Economic Research.
TI  - Overconfidence in Political Behavior
T2  - NBER working paper series
PY  - 2013///
CY  - Cambridge, Mass.
PB  - National Bureau of Economic Research
N1  - July 2013; Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
N2  - This paper studies, theoretically and empirically, the role of overconfidence in political behavior. Our model of overconfidence in beliefs predicts that overconfidence leads to ideological extremeness, increased voter turnout, and increased strength of partisan identification. Moreover, the model makes many nuanced predictions about the patterns of ideology in society, and over a person's lifetime. These predictions are tested using unique data that measure the overconfidence, and standard political characteristics, of a nationwide sample of over 3,000 adults. Our predictions, eight in total, find strong support in this data. In particular, we document that overconfidence is a substantively and statistically important predictor of ideological extremeness and voter turnout
UR  - https://www.nber.org/papers/w19250
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w19250
ER  -