TY  - BOOK
AU  - Snowberg,Erik
AU  - Wolfers,Justin
AU  - Zitzewitz,Eric
ED  - National Bureau of Economic Research.
TI  - Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting
T2  - NBER working paper series
PY  - 2012///
CY  - Cambridge, Mass.
PB  - National Bureau of Economic Research
N1  - July 2012; Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
N2  - Prediction markets--markets used to forecast future events--have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by economic forecasters. We show that prediction markets have a number of attractive features: they quickly incorporate new information, are largely efficient, and impervious to manipulation. Moreover, markets generally exhibit lower statistical errors than professional forecasters and polls. Finally, we show how markets can be used to both uncover the economic model behind forecasts, as well as test existing economic models
UR  - https://www.nber.org/papers/w18222
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w18222
ER  -