TY  - BOOK
AU  - Ashraf,Quamrul H.
AU  - Weil,David N.
AU  - Wilde,Joshua
ED  - National Bureau of Economic Research.
TI  - The Effect of Interventions to Reduce Fertility on Economic Growth
T2  - NBER working paper series
PY  - 2011///
CY  - Cambridge, Mass.
PB  - National Bureau of Economic Research
N1  - August 2011; Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
N2  - We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into child-rearing, and crowding of fixed natural resources. The model is parameterized using a combination of microeconomic estimates, data on demographics and natural resource income in developing countries, and standard components of quantitative macroeconomic theory. We apply the model to examine the effect of a change in fertility from the UN medium-variant to the UN low-variant projection, using Nigerian vital rates as a baseline. For a base case set of parameters, we find that such a change would raise output per capita by 5.6 percent at a horizon of 20 years, and by 11.9 percent at a horizon of 50 years
UR  - https://www.nber.org/papers/w17377
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w17377
ER  -