TY  - BOOK
AU  - Fernández-Villaverde,Jesús
AU  - Guerrón-Quintana,Pablo A.
AU  - Kuester,Keith
AU  - Rubio-Ramírez,Juan
ED  - National Bureau of Economic Research.
TI  - Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity
T2  - NBER working paper series
PY  - 2011///
CY  - Cambridge, Mass.
PB  - National Bureau of Economic Research
N1  - August 2011; Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
N2  - We study the effects of changes in uncertainty about future fiscal policy on aggregate economic activity. Fiscal deficits and public debt have risen sharply in the wake of the financial crisis. While these developments make fiscal consolidation inevitable, there is considerable uncertainty about the policy mix and timing of such budgetary adjustment. To evaluate the consequences of this increased uncertainty, we first estimate tax and spending processes for the U.S. that allow for time-varying volatility. We then feed these processes into an otherwise standard New Keynesian business cycle model calibrated to the U.S. economy. We find that fiscal volatility shocks have an adverse effect on economic activity that is comparable to the effects of a 25-basis-point innovation in the federal funds rate
UR  - https://www.nber.org/papers/w17317
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w17317
ER  -