Cochrane, John H.

Understanding Policy in the Great Recession: Some Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic / John H. Cochrane. - Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2010. - 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white); - NBER working paper series no. w16087 . - Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w16087. .

June 2010.

I use the valuation equation of government debt to understand fiscal and monetary policy in and following the great recession of 2008-2009, to think about fiscal pressures on US inflation, and what sequence of events might surround such an inflation. I emphasize that a fiscal inflation can come well before large deficits or monetization are realized, and is likely to come with stagnation rather than a boom.




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