TY  - BOOK
AU  - Garleanu,Nicolae B.
AU  - Pedersen,Lasse H.
ED  - National Bureau of Economic Research.
TI  - Dynamic Trading with Predictable Returns and Transaction Costs
T2  - NBER working paper series
PY  - 2009///
CY  - Cambridge, Mass.
PB  - National Bureau of Economic Research
N1  - August 2009; Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
N2  - We derive a closed-form optimal dynamic portfolio policy when trading is costly and security returns are predictable by signals with different mean-reversion speeds. The optimal strategy is characterized by two principles: 1) aim in front of the target and 2) trade partially towards the current aim. Specifically, the optimal updated portfolio is a linear combination of the existing portfolio and an "aim portfolio," which is a weighted average of the current Markowitz portfolio (the moving target) and the expected Markowitz portfolios on all future dates (where the target is moving). Intuitively, predictors with slower mean reversion (alpha decay) get more weight in the aim portfolio. We implement the optimal strategy for commodity futures and find superior net returns relative to more naive benchmarks
UR  - https://www.nber.org/papers/w15205
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w15205
ER  -