Crucini, Mario J. <br/><br/>
What Are the Driving Forces of International Business Cycles? / 
Mario J. Crucini, M. Ayhan Kose, Christopher Otrok. 
 - Cambridge, Mass.  National Bureau of Economic Research  2008. 
 - 1 online resource:  illustrations (black and white); 
 - NBER working paper series  no. w14380 .
 - Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)  no. w14380. .
<br/><br/> October 2008. 
<br/><br/> We examine the driving forces of G-7 business cycles. We decompose national business cycles into common and nation-specific components using a dynamic factor model. We also do this for driving variables found in business cycle models: productivity; measures of fiscal and monetary policy; the terms of trade and oil prices. We find a large common factor in oil prices, productivity, and the terms of trade. Productivity is the main driving force, with other drivers isolated to particular nations or sub-periods. Along these lines, we document shifts in the correlation of the G-7 component of each driver with the overall G-7 cycle. 
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