Chinn, Menzie D. <br/><br/>
Private Information and a Macro Model of Exchange Rates:  Evidence from a Novel Data Set / 
Menzie D. Chinn, Michael J. Moore. 
 - Cambridge, Mass.  National Bureau of Economic Research  2008. 
 - 1 online resource:  illustrations (black and white); 
 - NBER working paper series  no. w14175 .
 - Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)  no. w14175. .
<br/><br/> July 2008. 
<br/><br/> We propose an exchange rate model which is a hybrid of the conventional specification with monetary fundamentals and the Evans-Lyons microstructure approach.   It argues that the failure of the monetary model is principally due to private preference shocks which render the demand for money unstable. These shocks to liquidity preference are revealed through order flow.  We estimate a model augmented with order flow variables, using a unique data set: almost 100 monthly observations on inter-dealer order flow on dollar/euro and dollar/yen.  The augmented macroeconomic, or "hybrid", model exhibits out of sample forecasting improvement over the basic macroeconomic and random walk specifications. 
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