Duffie, Darrell. <br/><br/>
Multi-Period Corporate Failure Prediction with Stochastic Covariates / 
Darrell Duffie, Ke Wang. 
 - Cambridge, Mass.  National Bureau of Economic Research  2004. 
 - 1 online resource:  illustrations (black and white); 
 - NBER working paper series  no. w10743 .
 - Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)  no. w10743. .
<br/><br/> September 2004. 
<br/><br/> We provide maximum likelihood estimators of term structures of conditional probabilities of bankruptcy over relatively long time horizons, incorporating the dynamics of firm-specific and macroeconomic covariates. We find evidence in the U.S. industrial machinery and instruments sector, based on over 28,000 firm-quarters of data spanning 1971 to 2001, of significant dependence of the level and shape of the term structure of conditional future bankruptcy probabilities on a firm's distance to default (a volatility-adjusted measure of leverage) and on U.S. personal income growth, among other covariates.Variation in a firm's distance to default has a greater relative effect on the term structure of future failure hazard rates than does a comparatively sized change in U.S. personal income growth, especially at dates more than a year into the future. 
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