Doppelhofer, Gernot.
Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach /
Gernot Doppelhofer, Ronald I. Miller, Xavier Sala-i-Martin.
- Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2000.
- 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
- NBER working paper series no. w7750 .
- Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w7750. .
June 2000.
This paper examines the robustness of explanatory variables in cross-country economic growth regressions. It employs a novel approach, Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE), which constructs estimates as a weighted average of OLS estimates for every possible combination of included variables. The weights applied to individual regressions are justified on Bayesian grounds in a way similar to the well-known Schwarz criterion. Of 32 explanatory variables we find 11 to be robustly partially correlated with long-term growth and another five variables to be marginally related. Of all the variables considered, the strongest evidence is for the initial level of real GDP per capita.
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