TY  - BOOK
AU  - Stock,James H.
AU  - Watson,Mark W.
ED  - National Bureau of Economic Research.
TI  - Interpreting Evidence on Money-Income Causality
T2  - NBER working paper series
PY  - 1987///
CY  - Cambridge, Mass.
PB  - National Bureau of Economic Research
N1  - April 1987; Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
N2  - Previous authors have reached puzzlingly different conclusions about the usefulness of money for forecasting real output based on closely related regression-based tests. An examination of this and additional new evidence reveals that innovations in M1 have statistically significant marginal predictive value for industrial production, both in a bivariate model and in a multivariate setting including a price index and an interest rate. This conclusion follows from focusing on the trend properties of the data, both stochastic and deterministic, and from drawing inferences using asymptotic theory that explicitly addresses the implications of these trends for the distributions of the various test statistics
UR  - https://www.nber.org/papers/w2228
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w2228
ER  -