TY  - BOOK
AU  - Makin,John H.
ED  - National Bureau of Economic Research.
TI  - Real Interest, Money Surprises and Anticipated Inflation
T2  - NBER working paper series
PY  - 1981///
CY  - Cambridge, Mass.
PB  - National Bureau of Economic Research
N1  - December 1981; Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
N2  - This paper investigates the hypothesis that surprise changes in the money supply and anticipated inflation (the Mundell-Tobin effect) are both inversely related to the expected real interest rate. The two novel aspects of the investigation are tests of the hypothesized impact of money surprises on real rates while simultaneously testing the Mundell-Tobin hypothesis and estimation employing transfer function methodology developed by Box and Jenkins (1970). The transfer function enables the investigator to entertain the hypothesis that residuals may not follow a simple AR-1 process, as is usually assumed in corrections for correlated residuals, but rather may be appropriately represented by a more complex ARMA process. Based on quarterly data from 1959-1 - 1980-IVY results obtained constitutes failure to reject either an inverse relationship between money surprises and expected real interest or an inverse relationship between anticipated inflation and expected real interest. These findings do not constitute a rejection of market efficiency
UR  - https://www.nber.org/papers/w0818
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w0818
ER  -