TY - BOOK AU - Greenwood,Jeremy AU - Guner,Nezih AU - Kopecky,Karen A. ED - National Bureau of Economic Research. TI - The Downward Spiral T2 - NBER working paper series PY - 2022/// CY - Cambridge, Mass. PB - National Bureau of Economic Research N1 - February 2022; Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers N2 - There have been more than 500,000 opioid overdose deaths since 2000. To analyze the opioid epidemic, a model is constructed where individuals, with and without pain, choose whether to misuse opioids knowing the probabilities of addiction and dying. These odds are functions of opioid use. Markov chains are estimated from the US data for the college and non-college educated that summarize the transitions into and out of opioid addiction as well as to a deadly overdose. A structural model is constructed that matches the estimated Markov chains. The epidemic's drivers, and the impact of medical interventions, are examined UR - https://www.nber.org/papers/w29764 UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w29764 ER -