Effects of Restrictive Abortion Legislation on Cohort Mortality Evidence from 19th Century Law Variation /
Joanna N. Lahey, Marianne H. Wanamaker.
- Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2022.
- 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
- NBER working paper series no. w30201 .
- Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w30201. .
July 2022.
Recent studies based on 20th century US data conclude that abortion access raises children's average socioeconomic outcomes. We generalize a model of fertility, highlighting assumptions under which these abortion predictions can be reversed. Using 19th century abortion restrictions, we empirically demonstrate these points. Despite a more than 5 percent increase in birth rates among abortion-restricted cohorts, we find little evidence of negative selection at birth. Longevity was affected nevertheless; in the first ten years of life, children in these larger cohorts died of infectious disease more frequently. These mortality effects diminish with age, potentially reversing at older ages as a result of disease immunity or other offsetting factors.
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