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The Impact of Criminal Financial Sanctions: A Multi-State Analysis of Survey and Administrative Data / Keith Finlay, Matthew Gross, Carl Lieberman, Elizabeth Luh, Michael G. Mueller-Smith.

By: Contributor(s): Material type: TextTextSeries: Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ; no. w31581.Publication details: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2023.Description: 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white)Subject(s): Other classification:
  • H72
  • J24
  • K42
Online resources: Available additional physical forms:
  • Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
Abstract: We estimate the impact of financial sanctions in the U.S. criminal justice system using nine distinct natural experiments across five states. These regression discontinuity designs capture a range of enforcement levels ($17-$6,000) and institutional environments, providing robust causal evidence and external validity. We leverage survey and administrative data to consider a variety of short and long-term outcomes including employment, recidivism, household expenditures, spousal spillovers, and other self-reported measures of well-being. We find consistent, robust evidence of precise null effects on the population, including ruling out long-run impacts larger than -$347-$168 in annual earnings and -0.002-0.01 in annual convictions.
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August 2023.

We estimate the impact of financial sanctions in the U.S. criminal justice system using nine distinct natural experiments across five states. These regression discontinuity designs capture a range of enforcement levels ($17-$6,000) and institutional environments, providing robust causal evidence and external validity. We leverage survey and administrative data to consider a variety of short and long-term outcomes including employment, recidivism, household expenditures, spousal spillovers, and other self-reported measures of well-being. We find consistent, robust evidence of precise null effects on the population, including ruling out long-run impacts larger than -$347-$168 in annual earnings and -0.002-0.01 in annual convictions.

Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers

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