000			02418cam a22003497 4500
001			w28014
003			NBER
005			20211020103449.0
006			m o d
007			cr cnu||||||||
008			210910s2020 mau fo 000 0 eng d
100	1		_aBaumeister, Christiane.
245	1	2	_aA Comparison of Monthly Global Indicators for Forecasting Growth / _cChristiane Baumeister, Pierre Guérin.
260			_aCambridge, Mass. _bNational Bureau of Economic Research _c2020.
300			_a1 online resource: _billustrations (black and white);
490	1		_aNBER working paper series _vno. w28014
500			_aOctober 2020.
520	3		_aThis paper evaluates the predictive content of a set of alternative monthly indicators of global economic activity for nowcasting and forecasting quarterly world GDP using mixed-frequency models. We find that a recently proposed indicator that covers multiple dimensions of the global economy consistently produces substantial improvements in forecast accuracy, while other monthly measures have more mixed success. This global economic conditions indicator contains valuable information also for assessing the current and future state of the economy for a set of individual countries and groups of countries. We use this indicator to track the evolution of the nowcasts for the US, the OECD area, and the world economy during the coronavirus pandemic and quantify the main factors driving the nowcasts.
530			_aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
538			_aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
538			_aMode of access: World Wide Web.
588	0		_aPrint version record
690		7	_aC22 - Time-Series Models • Dynamic Quantile Regressions • Dynamic Treatment Effect Models • Diffusion Processes _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aC52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aE37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
700	1		_aGuérin, Pierre.
710	2		_aNational Bureau of Economic Research.
830		0	_aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) _vno. w28014.
856	4	0	_uhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w28014
856			_yAcceso en línea al DOI _uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w28014
942			_2ddc _cW-PAPER
999			_c320108 _d278670