000			02885cam a22003737 4500
001			w27924
003			NBER
005			20211020103506.0
006			m o d
007			cr cnu||||||||
008			210910s2020 mau fo 000 0 eng d
100	1		_aGallant, Jessica.
245	1	0	_aTemporary Unemployment and Labor Market Dynamics During the COVID-19 Recession / _cJessica Gallant, Kory Kroft, Fabian Lange, Matthew J. Notowidigdo.
260			_aCambridge, Mass. _bNational Bureau of Economic Research _c2020.
300			_a1 online resource: _billustrations (black and white);
490	1		_aNBER working paper series _vno. w27924
500			_aOctober 2020.
520	3		_aThis paper develops a search-and-matching model that incorporates temporary unemployment and applies the model to study the labor market dynamics of the COVID-19 recession in the US. We calibrate the model using panel data from the Current Population Survey for 2001-2019, and we find that the model-based job finding rates match observed job finding rates during the entire sample period and out-of-sample up through July 2020. We also find that the Beveridge curve is well-behaved and displays little change in market tightness in 2020 once we use the calibrated model to adjust for changes in the composition of the unemployed. We then use the model to project the path of unemployment over the next 18 months. Under a range of assumptions about job losses and labor demand, our model predicts a more rapid recovery compared to a model that does not distinguish between temporary and permanent unemployment and compared to professional and academic forecasts. We find that in order to rationalize the professional forecasts of the unemployment rate, some combination of the vacancy rate, job separation rate, and recall rate of workers on temporary layoff must deteriorate substantially from current levels in the next several months.
530			_aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
538			_aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
538			_aMode of access: World Wide Web.
588	0		_aPrint version record
690		7	_aJ01 - Labor Economics: General _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aJ11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aJ64 - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
700	1		_aKroft, Kory.
700	1		_aLange, Fabian. _914862
700	1		_aNotowidigdo, Matthew J.
710	2		_aNational Bureau of Economic Research.
830		0	_aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) _vno. w27924.
856	4	0	_uhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w27924
856			_yAcceso en línea al DOI _uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w27924
942			_2ddc _cW-PAPER
999			_c320198 _d278760