000			02228cam a22003737 4500
001			w27308
003			NBER
005			20211020103706.0
006			m o d
007			cr cnu||||||||
008			210910s2020 mau fo 000 0 eng d
100	1		_aAngeletos, George-Marios. _95029
245	1	0	_aImperfect Macroeconomic Expectations: _bEvidence and Theory / _cGeorge-Marios Angeletos, Zhen Huo, Karthik A. Sastry.
260			_aCambridge, Mass. _bNational Bureau of Economic Research _c2020.
300			_a1 online resource: _billustrations (black and white);
490	1		_aNBER working paper series _vno. w27308
500			_aJune 2020.
520	3		_aWe document a new fact about expectations: in response to the main shocks driving the business cycle, expectations underreact initially but overshoot later on. We show how previous, seemingly conflicting, evidence can be understood as different facets of this fact. We finally explain what the cumulated evidence means for macroeconomic theory. There is little support for theories emphasizing underextrapolation or two close cousins of it, cognitive discounting and level-K thinking. Instead, the evidence favors the combination of dispersed, noisy information and over-extrapolation.
530			_aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
538			_aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
538			_aMode of access: World Wide Web.
588	0		_aPrint version record
690		7	_aE03 - Behavioral Macroeconomics _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aE3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aE7 - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aG02 - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
700	1		_aHuo, Zhen.
700	1		_aSastry, Karthik A.
710	2		_aNational Bureau of Economic Research.
830		0	_aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) _vno. w27308.
856	4	0	_uhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w27308
856			_yAcceso en línea al DOI _uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w27308
942			_2ddc _cW-PAPER
999			_c320816 _d279378