000			03093cam a22004217 4500
001			w26033
003			NBER
005			20211020104111.0
006			m o d
007			cr cnu||||||||
008			210910s2019 mau fo 000 0 eng d
100	1		_aCajner, Tomaz.
245	1	0	_aImproving the Accuracy of Economic Measurement with Multiple Data Sources: _bThe Case of Payroll Employment Data / _cTomaz Cajner, Leland D. Crane, Ryan A. Decker, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, Christopher Kurz.
260			_aCambridge, Mass. _bNational Bureau of Economic Research _c2019.
300			_a1 online resource: _billustrations (black and white);
490	1		_aNBER working paper series _vno. w26033
500			_aJuly 2019.
520	3		_aThis paper combines information from two sources of U.S. private payroll employment to increase the accuracy of real-time measurement of the labor market. The sources are the Current Employment Statistics (CES) from BLS and microdata from the payroll processing firm ADP. We briefly describe the ADP-derived data series, compare it to the BLS data, and describe an exercise that benchmarks the data series to an employment census. The CES and the ADP employment data are each derived from roughly equal-sized samples. We argue that combining CES and ADP data series reduces the measurement error inherent in both data sources. In particular, we infer "true" unobserved payroll employment growth using a state-space model and find that the optimal predictor of the unobserved state puts approximately equal weight on the CES and ADP-derived series. Moreover, the estimated state contains information about future readings of payroll employment.
530			_aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
538			_aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files.
538			_aMode of access: World Wide Web.
588	0		_aPrint version record
690		7	_aC53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods • Simulation Methods _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aC55 - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aC81 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data • Data Access _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aC82 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data • Data Access _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aJ11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
690		7	_aJ2 - Demand and Supply of Labor _2Journal of Economic Literature class.
700	1		_aCrane, Leland D.
700	1		_aDecker, Ryan A.
700	1		_aHamins-Puertolas, Adrian.
700	1		_aKurz, Christopher.
710	2		_aNational Bureau of Economic Research.
830		0	_aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) _vno. w26033.
856	4	0	_uhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w26033
856			_yAcceso en línea al DOI _uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w26033
942			_2ddc _cW-PAPER
999			_c322089 _d280651